Enhancing Australia's Economic Prosperity
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Energy

The Australian Government is committed to the provision of adequate, reliable and affordable energy to meet future energy consumption needs and to underpin strong economic growth, consistent with the principles of environmental responsibility and sustainable development.
Key findings

The results of the SKM MMA, ROAM and BREE models are illustrated in the following charts and tables.

Figure A.1: Electricity generation to 2050, TWh (SKM MMA 2011)

This figure produced by SKM MMA in 2011 also projects Australia's electricity generation mix out to 2050 in terawatt hours. Wind, bioenergy, solar and hydro share similar trends to the ROAM Consulting figure. Geothermal is projected to increase its share in the mix to 100 terawatt hours in 2050. Black coal also remains a prominent part of the electricity mix at 120 terawatt hours, until it begins a decline in 2035 when black coal—CCS increases its share in the mix. At 2050 black coal is projected to have a share of less than 50 terawatt hours. This figure does not show the introduction of brown coal—CCS prior to 2050. Gas—CCS appears around 2038, increasing out to 2050.

Figure A.2: Electricity generation to 2050, TWh (ROAM Consulting 2011)

The first graph, produced by ROAM Consulting in 2010, shows the generation mix of each energy type in terawatt hours. In this figure, black coal remains steady at just over 120 terawatt hours until 2035, when it slowly declines. In 2042 black coal rapidly declines, reaching below 25 terawatt hours by 2050. Brown coal decreases it share in the electricity mix by 2038, when brown coal—CCS and black coal—CCS are introduced into the generation mix. The graph also shows the introduction of gas—CCS around 2040, steadily increasing its share out to 2050. Geothermal energy begins to increase its share of the generation mix from 2020 and continues to increase to approximately 50 terawatts in 2050.

Table A.1: Electricity generation in 2013, 2020, 2035 and 2050, by fuel source (SKM MMA)

SKM MMATotal generation (TWh)Black coalBrown coalBlack coal CCSBrown coal CCSCCGTOther gas and oilGas CCSHydroWindSolarGeo-thermalBio-massTotal clean energy
2013240.247.8%17.7%0.0%0.0%7.8%14.9%0.0%6.8%3.9%0.0%0.0%1.2%11.9%
2020256.748.1%13.1%0.0%0.0%7.3%12.1%0.0%6.6%9.0%0.0%0.9%3.0%19.4%
2035299.136.6%5.9%0.3%0.0%9.7%10.0%0.0%5.9%15.7%2.3%10.3%3.4%37.7%
2050358.310.1%0.0%16.0%0.0%9.3%8.5%9.7%4.7%12.5%3.3%22.9%2.7%71.7%

CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine; CCS = carbon capture and storage; TWh = terawatt hours. Total numbers may differ due to rounding

Table A.2: Electricity generation to 2050 (ROAM Consulting)

SKM MMATotal generation (TWh)Black coalBrown coalBlack coal CCSBrown coal CCSCCGTOther gas and oilGas CCSHydroWindSolarGeo-thermalBio-massTotal clean energy
2013237.949.8%18.4%0.0%0.0%12.9%8.4%0.0%6.5%3.5%0.0%0.0%0.6%10.6
2020265.947.2%15.4%0.0%0.0%12.1%7.1%0.0%5.6%11.1%0.0%0.0%1.4%18.1
2035313.240.5%6.3%0.0%0.0%17.8%7.3%0.0%4.6%13.9%2.2%6.1%1.1%28.0
2050390.55.6%0.0%4.0%10.0%22.5%3.4%18.3%4.2%15.0%3.1%12.7%1.1%68.5

CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine; CCS = carbon capture and storage; TWh = terawatt hours. Total numbers may differ due to rounding

Figure A.3: Electricity generation to 2050, TWh medium demand (BREE)

This figure illustrates Australia's electricity generation mix projections out to 2050 in the medium demand scenario from modelling conducted by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics. It shows the projected generation mix categorised per generation technology type in terawatt hours, and includes black coal, brown coal, coal—CCS, gas—CCGT, gas—OGCT, gas—CCS, hydro, wind, solar—large, geothermal, bio-electricity, rooftop PV and oil. The general trend shows a continuation of black coal usage until 2042 when coal—CCS technology increases its share in the electricity generation mix. Brown coal shows a steady decline after 2028 until it is no longer in the mix by 2038. Gas—CCGT and gas—OGCT remain in the mix out to 2050, with gas— CCS introduced after 2025 with an increasing share out to 2050. Other trends include an increase in geothermal after 2030, and an increase in large scale solar, rooftop PV and wind continuing out to 2050.

Figure A.4: Electricity generation to 2050, TWh low demand (BREE)

This figure illustrates Australia's electricity generation mix projections out to 2050 in the low demand scenario from modelling conducted by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics. It shows the projected generation mix categorised per generation technology type in terawatt hours, and includes black coal, brown coal, coal—CCS, gas—CCGT, gas—OGCT, gas—CCS, hydro, wind, solar—large, geothermal, bio-electricity, rooftop PV and oil. The general trend shows a continuation of black coal usage until 2043 when coal—CCS technology is introduced into the electricity generation mix. Brown coal shows a steady decline after 2028 until it is no longer in the mix by 2038. Gas—CCGT and gas—OGCT remain in the mix out to 2050, with gas—CCS introduced after 2037 with an increasing share out to 2050. Other trends include an increase in geothermal after 2030, and the introduction of large scale solar by 2018 following a large increase after 2032 and a steady increase in solar PV out to 2050.

Table A.3: Electricity generation in 2013, 2020, 2035 and 2050, medium demand (BREE)

 Total generation (TWh)Black coalBrown coalCoal CCSGasGas CCSHydroWindSolar– largeGeo-thermalBio-electricityRooftop PVOilTotal clean energy
2013235.442.5%23.2%0.0%18.5%0.0%5.0%6.6%0.1%0.0%1.0%1.2%2.0%13.8%
2020268.635.9%19.9%0.0%20.4%0.0%4.2%11.9%0.1%0.3%3.2%2.5%1.7%22.1%
2035317.732.3%3.4%0.0%19.7%0.9%3.8%12.7%11.0%5.0%2.9%6.9%1.5%43.1%
2050357.11.0%0.0%15.6%13.1%13.6%3.4%13.2%16.0%8.8%2.2%12.7%0.3%85.6%

CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine; CCS = carbon capture and storage; PV = photovoltaic; TWh = terawatt hours. Total numbers may differ due to rounding

Table A.4: Electricity generation in 2013, 2020, 2035 and 2050, low demand (BREE)

 Total generation (TWh)Black coalBrown coalCoal CCSGasGas CCSHydroWindSolar– largeGeo-thermalBio-electricityRooftop PVOilTotal clean energy
2013231.743.3%21.7%0.0%19.0%0.0%5.1%6.6%0.1%0.0%1.0%1.2%2.0%14.0%
2020252.439.3%16.7%0.0%18.0%0.0%4.6%13.2%1.2%0.4%2.1%2.7%1.8%24.2%
2035284.236.3%1.5%0.0%19.0%0.5%4.3%12.2%10.6%4.1%2.0%7.7%1.7%41.4%
2050318.90.5%0.0%11.1%14.7%13.7%3.6%14.3%17.7%8.4%1.7%14.2%0.1%84.7%

CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine; CCS = carbon capture and storage; PV = photovoltaic; TWh = terawatt hours. Total numbers may differ due to rounding

Figure A.5: Electricity generation to 2050, TWh high demand (BREE)

This figure illustrates Australia's electricity generation mix projections out to 2050 in the high demand scenario from modelling conducted by the Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics. It shows the projected generation mix categorised per generation technology type in terawatt hours, and includes black coal, brown coal, coal—CCS, gas—CCGT, gas—OGCT, gas—CCS, hydro, wind, solar—large, geothermal, bio-electricity, rooftop PV and oil. The general trend shows a continuation of black coal usage until 2043 where it declines steadily out to 2050. Coal—CCS technology is introduced into the electricity generation mix around 2036 and continues to increase out to 2050 as black coal decreases. Brown coal shows a steady decline after 2028 until it is no longer in the mix by 2040. Gas—CCGT and gas—OGCT remain in the mix out to 2050, with gas—CCS introduced after 2020 with an increasing share out to 2050. Other trends include a large increase in geothermal after 2030, and the introduction of large scale solar by 2018 following a large increase after 2025 and a steady increase in solar PV out to 2050.

Table A.5: Electricity generation in 2013, 2020, 2035 and 2050, high demand (BREE)

 Total generation (TWh)Black coalBrown coalCoal CCSGasGas CCSHydroWindSolar– largeGeo-thermalBio-electricityRooftop PVOilTotal clean energy
2013237.041.1%22.2%0.0%21.5%0.0%4.8%6.5%0.1%0.0%0.8%1.2%1.9%13.3%
2020285.334.2%20.0%0.0%23.2%0.0%4.0%11.3%0.0%0.0%3.4%2.3%1.6%21.0%
2035349.729.0%4.7%0.0%23.2%0.5%3.4%12.6%10.6%5.6%2.9%6.3%1.4%41.8%
2050401.52.8%0.0%17.4%17.0%9.5%2.5%12.5%15.1%9.6%2.1%11.3%0.3%79.9%

CCGT = combined cycle gas turbine; CCS = carbon capture and storage; PV = photovoltaic; TWh = terawatt hours. Total numbers may differ due to rounding

Page Last Updated: 9/11/2012 3:20 PM