The Wind Energy Forecasting Capability initiative (WEFC), announced in June 2004, provided up to $14 million dollars to support the development and installation of software and systems for the effective forecasting of wind energy generation in Australian power systems. WEFC funding concluded on 30 June 2009 although some work under the initiative will continue until 2010.
Wind energy's variability creates challenges for electricity system management and limits wind energy's commercial attractiveness. The ability to better forecast wind energy generation helps address this impediment and maximise wind’s contribution to abating greenhouse gas emissions, leading to a more environmentally sustainable energy mix.
The Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism has funded the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
to develop and deliver the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS). Where needed, funding has also been provided to assist development of Australian wind energy forecasting and electricity market integration knowledge, capability, and expertise.
The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS)
AWEFS is a centralised system that provides predictions of wind energy generation compatible with AEMO's National Electricity Market (NEM) management systems. It uses weather forecasts from meteorological bureaus and operational data from wind energy generators, such as site wind speed and direction, and turbine availability and output, to forecast expected wind energy generation.
The base system was launched by the Hon Martin Ferguson AM MP, Minister for Resources and Energy, on 7 October 2008. AEMO are continuing to develop Australian-specific functionality and enhancements, which are expected to be in implemented in 2010 . The Department will continue to oversee the development of these enhancements. While AWEFS will initially operate in the NEM, the system is capable of being extended to other Australian electricity markets.
Additional Wind Energy Forecasting Research
WEFC has also funded a number of research and development projects to support AWEFS, including:
- an international benchmarking study to identify world’s best practice wind energy forecasting systems
- studies of Australian weather patterns, their predictability and their impact on wind energy generation
- enhancements to AWEFS’ ability to predict solar generation and extreme wind events including the development of several new prototype AWEFS modules
- work to identify, test and implement improvements to Bureau of Meteorology weather prediction systems supporting AWEFS including wind energy and solar forecasting
- longer-term research by the University of New South Wales Centre for Environmental and Energy Markets (CEEM) into wind energy forecasting and electricity market integration of wind energy in Australia.