Modelling the Opportunity

To support the development of NFEE, in-depth technical and economic modelling and analysis has been undertaken by leading consultants. The modelling demonstrates the technical energy efficiency potential and economic costs and benefits for a range of scenarios.

Modelling Process

The modelling followed the three step process outlined below:

Modelling process image

Step 1 estimated the technical energy productivity improvement potentials for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

Step 2 modelled the costs of implementing measures to achieve the technical potential derived in Step 1, and modelled the annual energy and cost savings.

Step 3a modelled the broader economic benefits of realising the energy productivity improvement potential of a number of scenarios.

Step 3b modelled the impacts on the energy sector of increased energy productivity.

Modelling phases

Development of the modelling scenarios occurred over three phases:

Modelling phases image

Phase one and phase two modelling focused on the economy wide impact of across-the-board improvements in energy efficiency.

Phase three modelling evaluated the benefits of an energy efficiency target applied to end use consumption of gas and electricity.

Consultant reports

The consultant reports for each phase of the modelling are available for download.

Phase	Report	Document Type/Size
One	Armstrong/SEAV, Preliminary assessment of demand-side energy efficiency improvement potential and costs, SEAV, November 2003	[PDF, 734KB]
One	The Allen Consulting Group, Economic Impact Analysis of Improved Energy Efficiency, November 2003	[PDF, 930KB]
Two	Energetics, NFEE: Energy Efficiency Improvement Potential Case Studies – Industrial Sector, SEAV, March 2004	[PDF, 1.0MB]
Two	EMET Consultants, Energy Efficiency Improvement in the Commercial Sub-Sectors, SEAV, February 2004	[PDF, 543KB]
Two	George Wilkenfeld & Associates, NFEE – Energy efficiency improvement potential case studies, residential water heating, SEAV, February 2004	[PDF, 233KB]
Two	EMET Consultants, Energy efficiency improvement in the residential sector, SEAV, April 2004	[PDF, 396KB]
Two	EMET Consultants, The impact of commercial and residential sectors’ energy efficiency improvement on electricity demand, SEAV, April 2004	[PDF, 453KB]
Two	The Allen Consulting Group, Economic impact analysis of improved energy efficiency, Phase 2 report	[PDF, 695KB]
Three	The Allen Consulting Group, Economic impacts of a national energy efficiency target	[PDF, 385KB]
Three	McLennan Magasanik Associates, National energy efficiency target	[PDF, 570KB]

Modelling workshop

Details on the methodology and results of the energy efficiency improvement potential assessments and economy wide and energy sector modelling were provided at a stakeholder workshop in Canberra in April 2004.

The consultants involved in the modelling and analysis of the economic opportunity of energy efficiency presented their findings to participants. The presentations from the workshop are available for download.

Presentation	Presenter	Document Type/Size
Energy productivity—The economic opportunity for Australia	David Young, Former Chair, NFEE Steering Committee	[PDF, 222KB]
Modelling opportunities for improved energy efficiency	Richard Begley, The Allen Consulting Group and Dr Philip Adams, Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University	[PDF, 383KB]
Impact of energy efficiency programs on energy markets	Walter Gerardi, McLennan Magasanik Associates	[PDF, 1.2MB]
Industrial energy efficiency improvement potential	Patrick Denvir, Energetics	[PDF, 456KB]
Case Study—Amcor—How does Amcor Botany Mill continue to achieve energy savings?	Robert Simpson, Amcor	[PDF, 123KB]
Commercial sector energy efficiency improvement potential	Ian McNicol, Sustainable Energy Authority	[PDF, 291KB]
Residential sector energy efficiency improvement potential	Ian McNicol, Sustainable Energy Authority	[PDF, 313KB]